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Post by alexsaitta on Jan 13, 2016 17:37:49 GMT -5
Stock market comment from Oct 23: This rally (especially if it goes to new highs) is a gift. Take it. Sell into it, and it will be the buyer's problem. A deeper decline will follow.
Stock market comment from Nov 13: This is the gift rally. Here and now most all the risk is on the downside. I don’t see much upside potential for the Dow. Same advice. I would be selling all your stock holdings and move to the safety of the sidelines. Look at the 5 year Dow graph below and the break of that consistent uptrend line. Whatever fundamental force pushed the market up consistently for that long, that force has weakened significantly recently… Upside is limited. I think the next 2,000 points are down. That is the Dow is more likely to first reach 15,800 than 19,800.
Jan 13 Update: That was dead on correct. Looking at the updated graph below, you can see the break of the uptrend line labeled 1. Then the gift rally labeled 2. Looking ahead the key level is that previous low of 15,370 labeled 3. I feel confident the Dow will reach my 15,800 target mentioned on Nov 13. I would not be surprised if the final resting place is the 15,370 to 14,997 area. Is this a reversal of the 7 year bull market, or just a correction? That is where it will get interesting. (I hate to think what this decline is doig to the state's pension fund.) I find it very difficult to be a long-term bear on stocks, because you just know if the market goes down significantly, the Federal Reserve will be there and print loads of money to support prices and keep the market from rolling over. Everyone is invested from the state pension funds to mom and pop main street. If the market went down 50%, we'd have another Great Recession or a depression because all the debt that is piling up all over. They have proven they will do all they can to keep the markets up. We no longer have free stock or bond markets in world.
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Post by alexsaitta on Jan 16, 2016 15:37:25 GMT -5
video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000481077I’ve been saying for a long time now, how rising debt and other structural economic problems are depressing wages which have been growing at about 2%. Instead of cutting spending, and trimming government debt, central banks have just printed loads of money. As a result, inflation (the true measure) has been higher and has been above wages for years now, running at 4% today. (Failling oil took 1 to 2% off the true inflation rate.) Doing the math, on a real basis, consumer purchasing power has been declining for years, and this is reducing the standard of living of some especially the lower income sections of the economy. You can see the indications of this all around us. One is, how consumers are continuing to roll down in how they shop, and this is no more clearer than in retail merchandising. Forty years ago we shopped in department stores like A&S or Macy’s. Then Sears came along with quality items at a lower price. Then K-Mart, the first discount retailer, under cut Sears like Sears undercut A&S. Wal-Mart came along with its “Always Low Prices” theme and all put K-Mart out of business. Post Great Recession, consumer purchasing power eroded further, so consumers have rolled to the even cheaper dollar stores which have sprouted up all over. You can see in the video how this trend is causing Wal-Mart to modify its approach yet again. All this confirms the premise – consumers are getting squeezed more and more and looking for even cheaper prices not just in retail, but in their phone service and even shopping on the dollar menu now at McDonalds. Unless your family or business income is strong and growing at a high rate due to some unique circumstance, it is unwise to overspend in a consumer environment that is slowly decaying over time.
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Post by alexsaitta on Feb 23, 2016 12:11:43 GMT -5
www.nytimes.com/…/30/business/us-economy-gdp-q4.html…What have I been saying about long-term economic growth since 2009? The economy has down shifted and is on a permanently lower growth path and less job opportunities. This new normal is due to mounting debt, excessive tax rates, declining work ethic and various structural problems that are not being addressed by our policy leaders. Looking ahead economic growth rates in successive decades would slowly slide under the weight of these burdens, and sooner or later the economy would grind to a halt and collapse. You remember me recounting average annual GDP growth in the 1980’s at 3.6%, in the 1990’s at 3.5% and the 2000’s at 1.9% (that was recently revised down to 1.5%). The 2000’s was the worst decade of annual GDP growth since the 1930’s which was 2.0% per year. We just closed out the first half of the 2010’s. The first five years of this decade annual GDP growth has averaged 1.1%. The long-term slide continues. Short-term I think growth is continuing into 2016 and maybe will even in 2017, but this expansion is getting in the tooth. By the way, the best decade was the 1940’s with a 5.9% average annual GDP rate. This was due to the war years were the GDP often grew at a double-digit rate. All you Reagan fans, annual GDP growth in the 1982-91 period was 3.8%. Clinton had a good run in the 1991-00 ten year period where annual GDP growth was 4.0%. Those days have come and gone unfortunately.
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Post by diamonddave on Nov 8, 2017 18:10:57 GMT -5
I have an issiue concerning Veteran's Day. Currently it's obsereved on November 11, regardless of which day it falls on. Since in 2017 it is on a Saturday, there is no holiday for places like banks. Should it be changed to the second Monday in November? After all, November 11, 1918 was a Monday. Next year is the off-year election. Why don't we put it to a vote for every one to decide. That way, when November 11 falls on Monday it is celebrated on it's normal day.
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Post by diamonddave on Jan 4, 2018 21:15:45 GMT -5
They continue to observe MLK day on the 3rd Monday in January, yet January 15, 1929, the day MLK was born, was a Tuesday. Yet they continue to observe Veteran's Day on November 11, the day the armistice was signed in 1918 ending WW1, regardless of which day it falls on. Absolutely no consistency! Incidentally, both 1918 and 1929 use the same calendar, the one that will be used in 2019. All I ask is that not me or any one person decide, put it to the voters.
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