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Post by alexsaitta on May 14, 2012 7:19:11 GMT -5
The election in France a couple of weeks ago was a bell whether. Europe can't reign in its spending after overspending 50 years. Germany seems to be going the same route. Likely its conservative government will fall or have to move to the left. After so many years of hand outs, the people feel entitled to them, whether the money is there or not. Click Here For The StoryThe European Union is going to end, all that remains is the end. Greece is about to blow apart and will soon be pushed out of the EU. Click Here For The StoryOur political system has created political problems that are now beyond the abilities of our politicians to solve. What remains is the decline. It is not a matter of "if" but "when" or how long it takes to unfold. All this will drag on US growth. The GDP theme is the same. This is a recovery, but there are so many structural problems, expect the recovery/ expansion to stumbled here and there.
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Post by dreinert on May 16, 2012 13:03:30 GMT -5
The elections in France and Greece should be a wake up call to Americans. We are witnessing the true nature of socialism, a dependency on government that now translates into an entitlement mentality so ingrained that the population is utterly incapable, like a junkie on drugs, of withdrawing from that dependency. This is what many in our government want to create here, a people so dependent that they'll give the government anything it wants so it will keep providing their fix. These people will continue to demand they receive their fix until they have drained their economy completely into collapse, and then who will they turn to? How many options do they have? They will have to choose their new masters, either the communist Chinese or the American capitalist pigs. And if we keep on our current path, who will be there to help us? Maybe Obama, if re-elected, will mandate that all schools begin teaching Chinese.
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Post by alexsaitta on Jun 14, 2012 9:14:48 GMT -5
When you watch TV or talk with dooms dayers, they are all expecting this sudden crash or collapse. To me, it is something they bring to the table. Things are so bad, there is no other way it could end, but by a crash/ collapse. I have always rejected that, thinking things would slide down and down and down. You can see that in Europe. One country at a time is sliding under. First it was Ireland, Portugal, then Greece now it is Spain. The only thing they can do at this point is just print money and each bailout is a new round of money printing. The EU has no hope and it will split. These weak countries have to devalue their currency and they can't do that if they are in the EU with a common currency. Click Here For The StoryThe slowdown in Europe is starting to drag on the US. You can see it in the claims for unemployment. They are rising again. I do believe the US economy will continue to grow, but it will remain low as the US keeps bumping into structural economic problems that our political leaders here and those abroad lack the ability to solve. I just read today the median net wealth fell to what it was in 1992. That is, 20 years of net gain were wiped out. This is a decline, a ratcheting down of America from an economic superpower to an economic power. Obama is going to be defeated. Romney will win, but will be a one-termer.
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Post by dreinert on Aug 15, 2012 12:52:13 GMT -5
Today's Greenville News article proclaims "Europe teeters on the edge of a recession". The whole EU would have slipped into recession had it not been for Germany and France, sky-high debt and high unemployment are sucking the life out of Europe, sound familiar? Yet, there are so many academia elitists who still cling to the belief that we need to be like Europe. Socialist (oops, Progressive) programs have created an entitlement mentality which continues to drain resources which can no longer be sustained from the economy. We have a form of that here already with public employee retirements and benefits which are now beginning to suck resources from the economy. Yet, in spite of the increasing burden these programs place on the taxpayers the entitlement mentality reigns, as the lawsuit by USC professor Bryson indicates they are unwilling to even a little more. Keep in mind when they say "agencies" will pay $19 monthly more while employees pay $7 more that "agencies" = taxpayers. Also, when the article states that "legislatures" also distributed $20.6 million MORE to "agencies" to fully cover just the premium hikes, we're not talking about the "legislatures" money, but taxpayers money. The question begs to be asked, how much has your legislative delegation contributed to your retirement lately? We'll be following the EU down the economic toilet if we don't learn from what's happening there.
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Post by alexsaitta on Oct 30, 2012 6:12:41 GMT -5
I hope no one is clinging on to the European model when it comes to politicians. I think it is more like, politicians say we have this need and we must meet it even if we don't have the money. We have 47 million on Food Stamps, yet Obama is still talking about helping the poor and hungry. Isn't that what we are doing with the 47 million on Food Stamps program? Do we really need more? It is all about trying to be popular. We see it at all levels of government. Click Here For The StorySpain: What happens to a country when it over-spends, over-borrows and over-taxes. There is no way to avoid it. It is an economic law. Before, this happened only in 3rd world countries. Now it is happening to G-20 nations like Spain (13th biggest economy), and slowly Italy (8th biggest). If we don't change our course, it will happen here too. In the short-run, all the printing of money by the Fed and the still upswinging economic cycle is boosting US growth, even though the rest of the world economy is slowing again. This is why gasoline prices are so low -- low demand for oil because economies are contracting. Europe is in a recession. China's growth is slowing and so is Japan's. The US is the only bright spot with its growth perking up a bit. I still believe a recession will not hit the US until late next year.
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Post by alexsaitta on Nov 15, 2012 7:07:35 GMT -5
Click Here For The StoryIt is official the Euro Zone is back in recession with negative growth in Q2 and Q3. In the end, western nations will not be able to deal with their debt burdens without a significant increase in growth. Their solution, too often to raise taxes, will not work. This is the new normal. It was predicted. Now we are living it -- slower revenue growth and hence a declining standard of living. www.pickenspolitics.com/alex_000017.htm I wrote that in 2005. It lays out what was ahead and what to do about it. Those in government did not listen to any of these warnings a few were screaming about like that one. Such warnings were ignored even at the local level. I know mine was. Look at the school district/ school board. It did the opposite of what it should have done -- it took on a ton of debt, raising their debt obligation 17 times. Paying it off will cause a lot of pain, mainly the high tax rates, in a county that is struggling financially like most of the rest of the country.
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Post by dreinert on Nov 15, 2012 14:58:19 GMT -5
Article in today's Greenville News: "Gauge shows record 49.7 million poor" Why do i mention this? Because during the past 4 years more and more people have fallen below middle class into poverty, median wealth has fallen, more people are relying on government help to survive. While this bodes well for the Democratic party it is incredibly damaging to the country. In far too many cases people quickly fall into the entitlement trap, not even wanting to escape, becoming slaves to those who control the source of their survival. Tax the rich more so they can pay to support more on welfare, who now becomes the master? Riots spread across Europe as unemployment climbs and the bloated entitlement system crumbles around them, and still people refuse to accept the fact that their entitlements are unsustainable. And yet, there are those in this country who believe we should be more like them. We are rapidly approaching the point where those who refuse to produce feel they are entitled to the riches of those who do. As their numbers increase along with their demands, with a government all too anxious to financially enslave them, these pro-Europe elitists will get their wish, we will end up exactly like Greece, and Spain, and Portugal, and ...
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2012 6:45:34 GMT -5
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Post by dreinert on Nov 20, 2012 13:53:06 GMT -5
Unfortunately, there are a great number of people, a majority now it seems, who won't learn until their own little world crumbles around them. I've come to believe that a lot of it is ignorance on a massive scale. When you talk to many of the Obama supporters, most are fundamentally ignorant about what's happening in Europe. There's little on the regular news about the problems in Europe, not that most of them watch the news anyway, or even read newspapers. Now, they can tell you who the latest contestant is on The Voice, what football team is the best, or even what Hollywood celebrity is currently in rehab or getting divorced, but when it comes to economies, ours or Europe, they're oblivious. It's too unpleasant, they don't want to think about it. so they choose to go about their lives in blissful ignorance, expecting others to take care of the mundane parts of their lives like medical care or paying the bills for police and fire protection. Perpetual childhood, free of responsibility, which is probably why so many of them make poor parents now days and the schools have to assume the responsibility of raising the children. We are seeing how people react when reality hits them in the face, we can expect nothing better here when the money runs out.
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Post by alexsaitta on Nov 30, 2012 10:20:26 GMT -5
Click Here For The StoryEurope’s official unemployment rate is 11.7% and still rising. The true unemployment rate is likely higher. First is economic problems. Second is social unrest/ protests. Third is political change/ upheaval. It is not a good picture in Europe. Sooner or later Germany will say it has had enough, and the European Union will crumble. That could trigger the next recession. The middle east is also becoming more unstable. That could result in war or a recession. Whatever, the world economic situation will continue to deteriorate as long as our political leaders lack the will to deal with their deficits and the people continue to demand deficit spending. Sooner or later the day of reckoning will come, probably within the next 10 years. In the short-term, the US economy is starting to accelerate again, but I’m sticking to my economic forecast that a recession is due starting in the second half of 2013.
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Post by St. Thomas on Dec 3, 2012 14:02:00 GMT -5
Alex, we in SC did everything we could to make your 14 June 2012 prediction of Romney come true. However, we will have four more years of Obama. In lieu of sounding like a dooms dayer, I am excited that his presidency is half over!
Europe's finances are as dismal as their policies to repair the problem. Economists suggest the 17-nation euro currency area will stay in recession all next year.
As for our economy, it is experiencing a slight uplift that is typical after all presidential elections. However, it will subdue soon and even reverse back into a recession. Business owners like nothing about the current administration's fiscal policies and this will reflect in hiring and wage increases.
Just last week the President made a proposal to congress (through the Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner). Why he involved the Treasury Secretary is puzzling in itself, and the proposal was laughable ala Senator McConnell. I thought the proposal was absurd. 1.6 trillion in tax increases. Brand new stimulas 0 Spending cuts
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results -Albert Einstein
I wish our government would learn from mistakes, our's and Europe's. Instead, it appears we will join Europe on many issues, socially and fiscally.
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Post by alexsaitta on Dec 4, 2012 8:20:37 GMT -5
St. Thomas thank you for joining the board. Your comments are insightful and add a lot.
I'm still shocked that Romney lost, and how correct the polls where (leaning Obama).
I believe all things will get worse under Obama. Look at his proposal -- more of what has gotten us in this economic mess in the first place. The problem is very simple. The government and county has overspent for decades. The response was to raise taxes too high, borrow too much and run savings down to nothing to make it work. Those three things are the primary reason we are on a lower economic growth path. What does Obama propose? More of the same -- even higher tax rates, and more deficit spending.
One of our presidents is going to go down as the next Herbert Hoover when the economy breaks apart under the load of all this debt. It could be Obama.
You are right on with you assessment of Europe. It will continue to get worse and worse until they fix it, and they aren't fixing it, but just kicking the can down the road.
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Post by dreinert on Dec 4, 2012 15:24:59 GMT -5
I think Europe and the United States are going to reach an interesting conundrum, where is all this money they need to borrow going to come from. As the stagnating economies of the consumer nations drags down the economies of the other nations, where will there be enough money to borrow? This is just liable to end up with the EU and the USA competing and bidding on the little remaining money left to borrow, putting the nation(s) doing the lending in an awesomely powerful position. As the once powerful nations use their dying gasps to beg for bread, the owner of the bakery will become king. Maybe we need to be learning to speak Chinese.
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Post by St. Thomas on Dec 4, 2012 16:59:28 GMT -5
Over 53% of the $16.3 T debt is held within our borders. China does hold the largest US debt out of any country, narrowly edging Japan, 9.8% to 9.6% respectively. Next is the UK at 5.1%.
Obviously, this is not meant as an approval of government spending (or borrowing) but to show a glimmer of hope because no single country owns a substantial amount of our debt.
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Post by dreinert on Dec 5, 2012 9:50:59 GMT -5
I understand that most of our debt is owed internally, a big chunk of it to social security. This was debt that was accumulated in years past, but I wonder what percentage of our new debt is borrowed from external parties, and who those parties will be, since I think we can pretty much assume that the EU will be out of the lending business for quite awhile. It could be that our government doesn't worry a whole lot about the money it owes its own citizens, we can probably safely assume that any of the $7 trillion "surplus" funds "borrowed" from social security will never be repaid, since there is no way the government can repay the debt without extracting it from the very people they owe it to, and we're too broke to pay ourselves back. How much you want to bet that we won't be seeing some very high Chinese dignitaries visiting the White House early next year? Oh, and before I forget again, welcome to the board.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2013 21:34:02 GMT -5
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Post by dreinert on Mar 19, 2013 13:59:04 GMT -5
I find it amazing that there are so many people who believe that what's happening in Europe can't happen here. Even the EU has figured out that there aren't enough "wealthy" and not enough wealth to extract from them to continue to spread around, so now it really hits home, the bank accounts of the average middle class citizen. Since news like this isn't really promoted through most media outlets, and it doesn't involve singing, dancing or violence, most people never pay attention to what's happening across the pond and will not wake up until it hits their own bank accounts.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2013 4:56:05 GMT -5
The funds have to come from somewhere after they have spent all of the govt funds.... Why would any one think they will not take it from the people...
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Post by dreinert on Mar 20, 2013 13:41:20 GMT -5
Well, when the government has spent all the money it gets from us they'll just borrow more, and when that runs out we can just take from the rich, and when the government still needs more they'll simply print it. Tax, spend, borrow and print, the never ending federal government cycle.
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Post by georgewashington on Mar 22, 2014 14:25:06 GMT -5
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